Citigroup: LEDTV weakened demand in the second half of the year
On October 6th, Citigroup Global Securities issued the latest report of Taiwan's LED industry, pointing out that TV and lighting are still the two growth kinetic engines of LED industry. It is expected that in the future, the adoption of LED, the upgrade of chip specifications and the design win will be The key, but in the second half of the year, LED TV demand is weak, the market is expected to be transferred to China.
Citigroup Global pointed out that CIRA held the "Asia LED Tour" on 9/30, including several LED supply chain manufacturers, including Jingdian, Wangsi, Jiuyuan and Hongqi.
Citigroup believes that this year's LED TV penetration rate is growing rapidly, and it is expected to grow by 20% for the whole year. Under the previous problems of shortage of sapphire base supply and metallurgical vapor deposition (MOCVD) installation lead time bottleneck, Although Samsung lowered its LED TV growth target this year, most Taiwanese companies surveyed believe that its 2011 purchase volume can be doubled to 40%-45%.
In addition, Citigroup further pointed out that general lighting is also an important application of the LED industry, but in the first half of 2011, the price of LED lighting bulbs may fall from the current 20 US dollars to 14.99 US dollars. It is expected that once the trend continues, LED lighting in 2012 The price of the bulb may fall further below $10, which will drive a lot of demand.
Citigroup believes that new products with chip specification upgrade and design win will be the key to LED adoption in the future. It is believed that LED demand and price elasticity are directly related, and future LED backlight modules also have price reduction space, which is expected to be at price, It is more efficient to use, just like Samsung's new design, it will be converted from the original 4 to 2 shots to improve the efficiency.
However, Citigroup Global has further pointed out that the current market has doubts about the sharp decline in chip prices next year, and believes that it will hurt the LED supply chain, so each chip manufacturer is trying to develop higher performance chips to withstand price pressure, such as At present, Jingdian has developed a chip with a performance improvement of 15%, which has good results under the cost saving and price pressure.
Citigroup believes that in the second half of the year, the inventory level has increased and LED TV demand has slowed down. South Korea and Taiwan chip makers have deferred some equipment orders to 2011. However, under the aggressive expansion of China, suppliers are expected to China is re-ordering, and it is expected that in the new capacity opened in 2011, China will account for 60% of the government's continued support for MOCVD subsidies.
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