Copper futures may usher in a long bear market

Copper copper fell from the previous high of 10,000 US dollars to around 7,600 US dollars. After a sharp fall since September, the focus of Shanghai copper operation has shifted downwards. Currently, the main 1203 contract continues to be maintained at around 55,000 yuan/ton. Combined with the current macro situation and industry fundamentals, the future trend of Shanghai copper will continue to be subject to the European debt crisis, and next year the copper market will usher in a long bear market.

In the continuing suppression of the European debt crisis, Shanghai Copper went out of the market with a wide swing after falling back. Gradual change in supply and demand patterns According to Brook Hunt, a metals research arm of the commodity consultancy Wood Mackenzie, global copper consumption growth in 2012 and 2013 was 4.6%, while supply growth was 5.4% and 5.7% respectively. According to WBMS data, from January to October, the output of refined copper in the world was 16.29 million tons, and consumption was 15.934 million tons. The global supply surplus was 334,400 tons, which was larger than the surplus of 238,800 tons in the previous nine months. This shows that the current pattern of supply and demand for copper is shifting from a gap to the surplus, and the upward pressure on the copper market is greater.

From the perspective of domestic supply, China’s cathode copper producers from January to November this year cumulatively produced 3.522 million tons of cathode copper, which was a year-on-year increase of 14%; meanwhile, domestic demand did not perform well due to a slowdown in economic growth. The enthusiasm of domestic manufacturers for copper supplementation. At present, Shanghai copper is in a long-term upside down situation. As of the 26th, Shanghai spot copper quoted at a price of 450 yuan/ton to 330 yuan/ton. Speculators and downstream banks are still subject to funds, and the actual market turnover is unusually light. The characteristics at the end of the year are even more pronounced. In terms of explicit inventory, as of the 23rd, the stocks in the previous period were 82,283 tons, an increase of 2,713 tons over the previous week.

Overall, the European debt crisis and the strong US dollar will form a double suppression of copper prices, coupled with the gradual change in the pattern of supply and demand, making the copper price backlog difficult. Only domestic policy-oriented easing and anticipation of growth protection measures will bring good benefits to copper prices, but in Europe. Under the macroeconomic situation in which debt risks continue to accumulate, it is feared that Shanghai Copper’s weakening trend in the next year will fluctuate. At present, the Shanghai copper 1203 contract resistance at 56500 yuan / ton, support at 53,000 yuan / ton, it is recommended that investors keep rallies short ideas, waiting for opportunities to sell short.