According to the China Automobile Association (CAAC), even though the production and sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) only reached 200,000 units in the first half of the year, which is less than a third of the annual target of 700,000 units, it's believed that reaching this year's target won't be overly challenging when considering the combined impact of policies, demand, and other factors. Despite the relatively low growth rate of 3.8% in the overall automotive market during the first half of the year compared to the initial projection by the China Automotive Industry Association, there remains strong momentum in the auto consumption market.
Assistant Secretary Xu Haidong expressed optimism, stating that China's auto consumption demand is experiencing steady growth, which should support a continued rise in production and sales figures. He noted that the preferential policies for passenger cars with engines of 1.6 liters or less are set to expire by the end of the year, potentially creating a new wave of consumer interest. Xu emphasized that the 5% annual growth target set by CAAC is a prudent estimate, and they do not plan to revise this outlook just yet.
Interestingly, despite the slower growth rate in the automotive market, key performance indicators such as total industrial output value, operating revenue, and total profits among the top 17 automotive groups have maintained double-digit growth rates, at 11.3%, 11.2%, and 10%, respectively, from January to May. Assistant Secretary-General Chen Shihua pointed out that this demonstrates the competitive edge of major enterprise groups, a hallmark of the automotive industry's development trajectory. On one hand, mergers and acquisitions within the market are intensifying, leading to stronger positions for larger groups. On the other hand, the declining sales of smaller-engine passenger cars indicate a reduction in low-margin segments, enhancing profitability for companies.
Chen further remarked that the faster growth in corporate revenue compared to sales indicates a maturing market moving away from price wars toward rational competition. This shift benefits companies by encouraging them to focus more on product innovation and technological advancements. As the competitiveness of leading enterprises grows, Chinese brands are poised for a bright future. Deputy Secretary-General Jian Jianhua highlighted that Chinese brands represent the most promising sector of the domestic automotive market in the latter half of the year. Companies like Geely, Guangzhou Automobile, Great Wall, and Chang’an are excelling thanks to their early dominance in the SUV segment and ongoing efforts to improve product quality and technological prowess.
The enhanced reputation of Chinese brands is also driving export growth. Xu Haidong expects China’s auto exports to sustain a growth rate exceeding 20% in the second half of the year due to increasing competitiveness. The new energy vehicle market is particularly hopeful, with Deputy Secretary-General Xu Yanhua suggesting that the first half's 200,000 unit production and sales figure, representing 17% of the 700,000 target, aligns well with previous years' trends, implying minimal pressure to exceed the target.
Overall, while challenges remain, the automotive industry in China shows resilience and potential for sustained growth across various segments.
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