In 2017, distributed photovoltaics emerged as a major focus in the solar energy sector, driven by supportive government policies and increasing market demand. As the industry moved into 2018, questions arose about whether the rapid growth of distributed PV would lead to overcapacity. Amidst this momentum, companies were faced with the challenge of strategic positioning and long-term planning.
The year 2017 marked a turning point for China’s distributed photovoltaic market. A series of favorable policies laid the groundwork for its expansion, leading to a significant surge in installations. According to data from the National Energy Administration, by November 2017, China’s total photovoltaic output exceeded 100 billion kilowatt-hours, with distributed PV contributing 13.7 billion kWh. This highlighted the explosive growth of distributed systems and their growing role in driving overall PV demand.
The development of distributed PV can be segmented into industrial/commercial and residential applications. While industrial and commercial projects gained traction earlier, the residential market only began to take off in 2017. The decline in both installation costs and subsidies created new opportunities, opening up larger market spaces and allowing emerging markets to flourish.
Despite global photovoltaic investment remaining steady, the growth rate has slowed. However, distributed PV continues to show strong potential, offering a “spring†for the industry. Analysts predict that the household PV market alone could reach 180 GW in urban and rural areas. When combined with industrial and commercial installations, the market outlook becomes even more promising.
Looking ahead, distributed PV is no longer limited to rooftops. Innovations are expanding into areas like carports, barren hills, ponds, farmlands, and greenhouses, making the technology more versatile and widespread. This diversification signals a shift toward broader adoption and integration.
While 2017 saw strong growth, it wasn’t the fastest, but it was a powerful comeback after years of development. Experts attribute this to factors such as reduced subsidies for ground-mounted projects, which pushed many players toward the distributed market. Additionally, stable subsidies in 2016 helped boost industry profits.
The 13th Five-Year Plan for Solar Energy Development set ambitious targets, including 60 million kW of distributed PV capacity by 2020. With further policy support, the market is expected to grow rapidly. However, challenges remain, including standardization issues, grid upgrades, and concerns about overcapacity if growth continues unchecked.
Industry insiders emphasize the need for technological innovation and strategic market planning. Companies must improve project quality, build strong distribution channels, and adapt to evolving demands. While the current residential market is fragmented, with no clear leader, the future may see consolidation and optimization.
As the industry moves forward, the pace of innovation and business model evolution will be key. New technologies, regional shifts, and changing consumer preferences will all shape the future of distributed PV. In 2018, the residential market is expected to reach over 800,000 units, with a total market capacity of 6 GW. Distributed PV remains a central theme in the solar industry’s ongoing transformation.
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