Although FIBIT released the first wearable product as early as 2009, and several startups followed suit, Sony, Samsung and other giants also rushed to the early layout, but this product has not been recognized by the public, even though investment The world is hot, but the market is still tepid, and the four words inside and outside are also constantly mentioned by people in the industry. Until March of this year, the release of APPLE WATCH quickly ignited the market, which on the one hand played a huge role in educating and guiding consumers. On the other hand, it accelerated the improvement of the industrial chain, and the market was quickly launched. Global Wearable Retail 2015 The market size is forecast to be 72 million units, a year-on-year increase of 132%. In the past, everything was ready, and the situation of only owing to the east wind was quickly broken, which made 2015 the first year of the wearable market. With the help of all parties, this momentum will continue in 2016. It is predicted that the global wearable market will reach 114 million units in 2016.
From the perspective of regional distribution, developed countries in North America, Western Europe and Asia-Pacific have good sports habits, and products such as PEBBLE have been released as early as 2012. They have a number of fans and have laid a certain market foundation. Therefore, In 2015, the region will account for nearly 65% ​​of the global market. China has a huge market capacity as a global market. Whether it is in terms of population base or purchasing power, it needs to be actively deployed for major manufacturers. It is expected that 2015 will occupy Nearly 22% share, becoming the world's second largest market.
China's overall market size and current status
According to GfK national forecast data, the retail sales of China's wearable market in 2015 was 18.1 million units, an increase of 321% year-on-year. Among them, smart bracelets increased by 252% year-on-year to 8.8 million, and smart watches increased by 531% year-on-year to 8.2 million units. The main reason for the formation of this market pattern is: overall, the popularity of Xiaomi bracelets and APPLE WATCH boost, Shenzhen wearable industry chain has followed suit to seize the market, driving the Chinese wearable market as a whole into a rapid expansion stage.
Separately, in terms of smart bracelets, although the hot sale of Xiaomi bracelets has driven the entire bracelet market to start from the second half of 2014, the overall sales volume has not driven the entire bracelet market into a benign development stage. Other domestic manufacturers have to cut prices to stimulate sales, profit margins are rapidly compressed, manufacturers either survive in price wars, or start to transfer to other products such as smart watches, and the products of smart bracelets themselves are replaced. Strong, many functions can be compatible with smart watches, and the industry urgently needs innovation.
In terms of smart watches, Apple undoubtedly has a great influence on the market, but in addition to the promotion of Apple, children's watches began to take off quickly in June this year, mainly for the following points:
1. Grasping the pain points of the subdivided population, in the context of frequent child trafficking cases, the propaganda of film and television and media, the children's positioning watch with the main theme of “Children's Safety†undoubtedly caught the pain of parents caring for their own children;
2, brand marketing momentum, 360, small genius and other brand propaganda is very strong, promoting consumer awareness of the market, speeding up the children's watches;
3, the industry chain boost, the entire industry from well-known brands to white cards have joined, PMOLED screen supply is in short supply, almost monopoly of the big factory orders is making the entire Shenzhen wearable circle a hard-to-see situation, which is more exciting The willingness of all manufacturers to seize the market. After all, in the current situation that many manufacturers do not know how to cut into the market, this market feedback will undoubtedly provide them with a strong reference. Therefore, under the joint stimulation of Apple Watch and Children's Watch, the sales of the overall smart watch has soared, and In July of this year, the smart bracelet was overtaken and became the first category of wearable products.
Wearable different categories have significant market segmentation differences
First, the operating system
With the emergence of wearables, the giants have laid out their layouts. In addition to their hardware, they also want to build their own ecosystems, including custom OS and UI, open APIs and SDKs. At present, the operating system of the wearable terminal can be divided into RTOS, cropped Android, Android Wear, WatchOS, TIzen, and the like. It is worth mentioning that TIzen is Samsung's main operating system. Although its ecosystem is difficult to match the Android and the prospects are not clear, it also makes other manufacturers see a possibility, although only Samsung can put its own system. Used on smart watches, but manufacturers like LG (with webOS) are likely to use their own operating systems on future smart watches, and become a "all-platform" operating system, Microsoft's Windows 10 is also very It may enter the smart watch market in the near future. Unlike the smart phone market, as Android Wear enters China later, the battle for smart watch systems has shown a white-hot trend from the beginning, so it can be seen that the operating system The importance of the field.
According to the GfK retail monitoring data, the operating system ratio of the four types of products is very different. Among them, the children's watches and smart bracelets are relatively simple in structure and function, and the system consumes less power and consumes less power. All equipped RTOS; mobile phone smart watch RTOS accounted for 88% share, the other two are cutting TI and Samsung's TIzen system, of which three domestic startups accounted for nearly 70% of Android's tailoring, brand concentration is high; Smart watches contain the most brands and relatively rich functions. Therefore, this category covers all operating systems. I believe that with the launch of Android Wear products from Lenovo and other international manufacturers, Android Wear is in the field of smart watches. The proportion will rise steadily.
Second, the price distribution
Wearable four types of products have different trends in terms of product prices. In terms of smart watches, Apple Watch and many startup companies are located here, and most startups take a small and refined route. Therefore, the price of the entire smart watch is relatively high. In the future, as more giants enter, the price of the product may continue to rise, and the mobile phone watch is more of a white card manufacturer, which lowers the overall price to a certain extent, and because of the industry. The further improvement of the chain and the further decline in the price of components will make the price of such products continue to fall, and the future price war is more likely to occur in this market; children's watches have more overlap in the industrial chain due to similar product structure and mobile phone-like watches. At present, the average price trend is converging, but as more big manufacturers see the trend, the price of the two may show different trends in the future; in terms of smart bracelets, Xiaomi has always dominated the bracelet market, plus The price is subject to restrictions on other bracelet manufacturers, so the overall price of the bracelet product is low.
According to GfK retail monitoring data, mobile phone watches are mainly covered by the price range of 100-500 yuan, accounting for nearly 94% of the share; smart watches are more balanced than the other three categories, of which 200-500 yuan price segment The largest share is 33%, the second is more than 1,000 yuan, accounting for 24%, the main driving force comes from APPLE WATCH, the price segment of 100-200 yuan is driven by the sales of low-priced products based on public models. The price range continues to rise; in terms of children's watches, the price composition is relatively simple, 200-500 yuan is the main price range, and as the children's watch market continues to be hot, many manufacturers join the melee, in order to quickly open the market, some manufacturers tend to use low Price strategy, so you can see that the high-end price of this category is constantly eroding, the price is declining; the situation of smart bracelets is just the opposite of children's watches, the shipment of Xiaomi bracelets continues to rise, sales are hot, many manufacturers look at business opportunities At the price of over one hundred, it also attracted many consumers who did not buy on the official website to pay for it, plus some new players with price positioning of 100-200 yuan. For consumers 50-100 yuan price range of some form of diversion, thus exhibiting a higher price segment erosion phenomenon of low-cost segment. It can also be seen that for the purchasers of the bracelet, it is not so sensitive to whether the price is over 100 in the price range of 50-200 yuan.
Third, screen analysis
Most wearable products are equipped with screens. According to the definition of GfK and related data, the following three aspects are analyzed:
1, screen size: class mobile phone watch 1.55-2 size segment and "1 size segment accounted for 39% and 38% respectively, the remaining is 1-1.5; smart watch 1.55-2 size segment accounted for 84% of the proportion, The rest is 1-1.5 inches; children's watches have the opposite performance, "1 inch size is the most popular, accounting for 89%, the rest is 1-1.5 inches; smart bracelets are almost all equipped with "1-inch screen.
2, screen technology: smart watches compared to the other three types of product screen technology cover most and almost all coverage, the top three are: TFT33%, OLED29%, Super Amoled19%, mobile phone watches are occupied by four technologies, of which TFT occupied 89% of the high proportion, the other three categories are IPS6%, Super Amoled4% and OLED1%, children's watches and smart bracelets are similar, OLED technology accounts for the majority, followed by 20% of LEDs , except that the rest of the children's watch is TFT and E-INK, and the smart bracelet is LCD;
3, screen shape: smart watch, children's watch and smart bracelet three types of products in the shape of the screen is similar, more than 80% for square screen, round screen accounted for a small proportion, but in MOTO 360 and huawei watch and traditional watches Driven by the manufacturers, smart watches that return to the traditional round screen will increase in the future.
In addition, with the further breakthrough and development of technologies such as graphene, flexible electronic paper and nano-silver conductive ink, the screens using these technologies in the future will be better adapted to wearable products, providing comfort and wearability for people. Both add a lot.
Fourth, functional interpretation
Due to the perfection of various links in the industry chain and technical deficiencies, wearable products currently have few main functions, among which the most popular functions are sports, health, positioning and payment functions. Through GfK retail monitoring, you can see:
In terms of accelerometers, almost all of the bracelets with the main function of recording health data are equipped with this configuration, followed by smart watches, mobile watches and children's watches, and data display smart watches also have this function. The product positioning at the beginning of the birthable product has a certain relationship. With the further market segmentation trend in the future, other functions in the future will have a certain degree of erosion;
In the field of health monitoring, due to technical limitations, the most widely used function is heart rate monitoring. This function is most widely used in smart watch products, followed by wristband products, while children's watches are based on functions such as positioning. There are few functional products, and health monitoring is one of the most noteworthy markets in the future. With the further breakthrough of technology, this configuration will become more popular in the future, and similar functions such as blood sugar and blood oxygen will gradually mature;
In terms of payment, according to GfK consumer research results, about 54% of consumers hope that wearable devices can become a payment tool, and the success of the typical representative brush of this kind of product has been the footnote to this result. The payment method has been successfully applied in Beijing, and will be extended to 400 cities nationwide. This has caused many manufacturers to pay attention to the payment function. Recently, Ali has just released PAY WATCH to promote this field;
Other functions such as cameras and pressure gauges are constantly being explored and improved. In the future, as small and medium-sized manufacturers in professional fields or entrepreneurial teams become more aware of the importance of market segments, they are more targeted at different applications. The professional features of the scene will be continuously developed and improved.
Critical, the platform has become a must for the giants
As we all know, wearable is more than just a hardware-based product. People's hopes and prospects for its future will determine that the hardware terminal is only a part of it, and the iceberg below is what we call data. The impact of people's life will be much higher than the present. With the opening of the Internet of Things, the connection of characters and the connection of objects will become a trend, and the cornerstone of these possible realizations is the data. Therefore, the data is extracted. The establishment of the platform has become a top priority.
Foreign Apple, Google to domestic BAT, and even some small and medium-sized startups have built their own platforms. The first category does not need to be said, whether it is open or closed is to create a huge ecosystem, unlike mobile phones and platforms. Yes, whether it is social or self-monitoring, the realization of the wearable future function depends on the data behind it. The second category, although the Internet + is in the limelight, but for the Internet manufacturers, the control of the hardware supply chain At present, it is still a short board, and the foothold is still more reflected in software and content. Therefore, BATs have their own card slots, early layout, and take different measures and actions with their respective advantages. As for the last category of domestic small and medium-sized startups, Although the advantages of resources and funds are slightly owed, but also recognize the value of data behind their own hardware, in order to protect data and do one-time transactions without hardware, many manufacturers are not willing to cooperate with the platform companies to choose themselves. Build, therefore, the horn of the platform battle is now blowing, and the battles are in full swing, but with the future data The requirements for integration and unification are getting higher and higher, the model of data silos is no longer feasible, and the flow of resources will eventually merge. By then, more powerful manufacturers will have greater advantages.
Future trend
Appearance: both fashion and comfort
A wearable product is different from a mobile terminal such as a mobile phone or a tablet. The characteristics of the product worn on the body make people have higher requirements on its shape. The design of the mobile phone that is taken out from time to time is quite high, not to mention the time. The watch or bracelet product that will be displayed in front of others, the social attributes of human beings will make most people pay attention to or care about the opinions and comments of others. The enduring status and value of traditional watches also illustrate this point. It's not just a piece of hardware but the sum of hardware and its added attributes, especially now that with the development of the economy, people's living standards have improved rapidly, and users have paid more and more attention to their own dressing, a mediocre bracelet and watch. Users are not willing to wear a bunch of bad reviews or countless side eyes, which requires manufacturers to pay enough attention and input in the design of the products. In addition, wearable is a product that is worn for a long time, so comfort is also an aspect that users will consider.
Vertical deep penetration, focus on market segments
Compared with other industries, the wearable industry has a more obvious segmentation trend. At this stage, there is a high demand for large and comprehensive wearable products that meet the general needs of the mass market, while wearable products for market segments are relatively speaking. More operability, for them, the function is small and refined, so that the manufacturers rooted in a certain segment of the field will be more efficient from the perspectives of R&D investment, resource allocation, marketing, etc., and accordingly their chances of success in the market. It is also higher, and once a successful opening is opened, so that people can see the existence of its feasibility, it will undoubtedly attract more manufacturers to join the market and promote the expansion of the entire market, so the plate can grow bigger and bigger. Prudent analysis, grasping the development trend of the industry, and cultivating vertically, and creating small and sophisticated products to establish its higher industry barriers may be the best choice for most of the manufacturers at this stage, especially small and medium-sized startups and professional transformation companies.
Grab pain points and build user stickiness
The biggest challenge facing the wearable industry today is how to solve the user's pain points and build user stickiness. The user has purchased a wearable product. What can this product bring to it is the most important thing to pay attention to? The most important point is that it is irreplaceable. At present, most of the wearable devices have centralized monitoring functions such as heart rate steps, etc., and ordinary people have no hard demand for it. This is why many bracelet users will choose to pick them up for 3-6 months and no longer wear them. The consequence of this move is that they may treat them as no need to replace them or recommend the surrounding people to buy them. The sustainable development of the wearable industry undoubtedly causes great worries, and the way to solve this problem is to grasp the pain points of people's needs. The function of surface propaganda is not equal to the intelligence is not equal to the real needs of users, more is just gimmick, for the current In the wearable industry, it is perhaps the most feasible way to grasp the user's needs and pain points and to make the most extreme functions. The way of matching is to promote the development of sensor core components and the progress of related technologies and algorithms. The data of the market can be accurately collected and analyzed and presented with results and suggestions for the actual value of the user, a credible guidance for people's lives, and a one-to-one precision service to feed back the hardware acquisition and software. The presentation of the user's stickiness in the market has made people really need the product. The current hot sale of children's watches just confirms this.
Data integration, getting rid of silos
At present, due to the protection of data and the willingness to make an ecological, manufacturers are more inclined to collect and analyze the presentation data themselves, so that they can establish their user stickiness, solve the user's one-time purchase problem, and use the subsequent service charge for the Internet of Things. A large network, wearable devices, smart homes, smart cars, etc. are all part of it. With the maturity of cloud platforms and big data technologies, the interaction between wearable devices and cloud and other products is increasingly close, and users need to be unified. Need to know where his data exists, you need to view the same batch of data in different interfaces. At that time, the user's data will no longer be presented as data islands, but will tend to be integrated, and the Internet of Things will be realized.
After several years of accumulation and precipitation, with the great trend of the Internet of Things, the wearable industry has finally ushered in its golden age, from the capital level to the industrial chain to the terminal manufacturers to the platform and software vendors. No matter what you do, you should pay attention to the trend. At present, the wearable momentum is good, and participants need to be well grasped to contribute value to the whole industry while achieving their own achievements. The release of APPLE WATCH has a certain education on the market. Guiding role, but then how to play this game is still a good plan to plan. How to do a good job of positioning itself, how to turn functions into intelligence, how to use good data to build user stickiness, how to connect with the Internet of Things, all kinds of problems require manufacturers to sink their minds and think hard.
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