Bitcoin has experienced a dramatic swing in value over the past few days, with sharp declines followed by sudden surges. This volatility has caught the attention of major financial figures. Following Warren Buffett’s recent warning that virtual currencies are unlikely to end well, renowned economist Robert Shiller from Yale University has also issued a cautionary message, suggesting that Bitcoin could face a complete collapse.
CNBC reported on the 19th that Shiller made these remarks during an interview before the recent surge in Bitcoin's price. He compared Bitcoin to the tulip mania in 17th-century Netherlands, a period when people paid exorbitant prices for tulip bulbs, despite their lack of intrinsic value. According to Shiller, Bitcoin holds no real value unless market participants believe it does. Unlike gold, which has long been used as a store of value and for investment, Bitcoin lacks such a foundation.
Shiller noted that even though people still pay high prices for tulips today, they are not as valuable as they once were. In contrast, he believes Bitcoin could eventually crash and fade into obscurity. However, he acknowledges that it might still be around for some time—perhaps even for a century.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, predicts that Bitcoin could drop as much as 90% from its current level. He isn’t surprised if the price falls to between $1,000 and $3,000 within the next year, especially if there’s a sudden sell-off. Boockvar explains that assets that rise rapidly tend to fall back down, and Bitcoin is no exception. However, he remains uncertain whether the decline will be gradual or abrupt.
He also attributes the current hype around Bitcoin to the easy monetary policies of central banks, including the Federal Reserve. As interest rates normalize, he expects the virtual currency bubble to burst. Once this happens, investor sentiment toward high-risk assets like Bitcoin may shift dramatically, potentially dragging down the broader stock market as well. Boockvar emphasizes that this outcome depends more on market psychology than on economic fundamentals.
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