Ma Yun VS Qian Yingyi: Does big data cloud computing artificial intelligence resurrect the planned economy?

Recently, Ma Yun, a prominent businessman in the business world, and Qian Yingyi, a well-known economist, had an "empty debate" on planned economic issues. Ma Yun expressed optimism about the revival of the planned economy and felt that “the planned economy will become larger and larger” and “there will be new theories after 30 years.” Qian Yingyi believes that the defeat of the planned economy is inevitable.

The planned economy model is a grand and romantic design model of economic governance. Although the real world operation has failed several times, the dream contained in it is still quite attractive. Therefore, it is normal for this over-the-top old topic to once again arouse attention. So who exactly is right?

Ma Yun specifically said: “What is the market economy and the planned economy that Marxism talks about? In my opinion, this concept has been considered by the past 100 years as a very good market economy. I personally think that the next 30 years will be very great. With the change, the planned economy will become bigger and bigger. Why? Because of the acquisition of data, we can find out about the invisible hand of a national market. Before the doctors of traditional Chinese medicine discovered the X-ray and CT machines, we did not. The way to open the stomach to see, so the pulse of Chinese medicine, hope, smell, ask, and cut form a unique command system, but after the X-ray and CT came out, it turned upside down, I believe the data era we have for the country and The world's economy and data are clearly grasped. Just as we will have an X-ray machine and a CT machine for the world economy, we will have new theory in 30 years."

In principle, technological progress can indeed influence and change the human governance model. Obviously, Ma Yun is optimistic on this issue.

Coincidentally, Qian Yingyi, a famous economist, recently spoke about the planned economy in an award-winning speech. He said: “One of the major events in the global economy in the 20th century is that humans try to replace the market economy with a planned economy, hoping to create more efficient and more equitable economic operating mechanisms. Decades of practice have shown that the planned economy cannot be achieved. This goal, not only is far from the developed market economy, but also cannot compete with the emerging market economy.In the last 20 years of the 20th century, almost all planned economies are transitioning to a market economy.China is this historical trend An example of this is the prominent example."

Qian Yingyi made an empirical analysis in principle: “The planned economy has encountered two major problems: one is the allocation of resources and the second is the issue of incentives. The former is because the prices in the planned economy are not determined by market supply and demand, but by The planners decided that this resulted in a huge distorted allocation of resources, and the latter problem was due to incentive distortions caused by "big pots" and "soft budget constraints" under the public ownership and government-led economy, manifested in the fact that individuals, companies, and governments did not Increased enthusiasm for efficiency."

Will the two classic questions that Qian Yingyi mentioned, namely resource allocation problems and incentive mechanisms, be solved with technological progress? Let us first review history.

There are actually three fundamental problems in the planned economy, not two.

In the 1920s and 1930s, when the planned economic model of the former Soviet Union was booming, a major debate broke out in the Western mainstream economic circles. The main debate between the two sides is that the Austrian school (Misses, Hayek, against the planned economy) British and American neo-classical economics (thought that the planned economy is technically feasible), Marxist economists such as Lange and others also participated in the debate.

Mises proposed that there are three fundamental issues in the planned economy: economic calculation (ie, resource allocation), incentives, and knowledge (ie, information issues).

Those who understand the course of the world economy in the second half of the 20th century know that Mises's prophecy was fully fulfilled.

In fact, the former Soviet Union's planned economic management technology is more advanced than your imagination. It is well known that the Soviet Union has amassed mathematicians and the enormous precision of the planned economic models made by Soviet mathematicians is enough to marvel at the outside world.

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