Lithium battery industry breaks the road

After more than 20 years of development, China's lithium-ion battery industry has entered a period of rapid development. Driven by China's successive stimulus policies, China's lithium-ion battery output growth will continue to accelerate in 2014, and the annual output is expected to exceed 5.4 billion.

In fact, from the early 90s of last century, China began to pay attention to the development of lithium-ion batteries, and included it in the 863 plan and the "Ninth Five-Year Plan" key research projects. In 2012, the output of lithium-ion batteries in China was about 4 billion, accounting for more than two-thirds of the world's total output. However, there is still a big gap between China's enterprise scale and technological strength and international giants.

Since 2013, the competition in the global lithium-ion battery market has further intensified, and the industry giants have accelerated the deployment of emerging markets. However, the domestic lithium-ion battery industry has witnessed increasingly disorderly development and the entire industry is facing more severe development.

Three major elbows

The market demand for lithium-ion batteries mainly comes from the consumer electronics market and emerging markets represented by electric vehicles. In recent years, the growth of consumer electronics products has tended to slow, and the development of lithium-ion emerging markets has been far below expectations. The competitive environment in international markets has further deteriorated.

As far as China's situation is concerned, after 2009, affected by the concept of electric vehicles, China's lithium-ion battery investment has soared. The further intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand has made the lithium-ion battery market into a dilemma of disorderly development, and has also caused the “little, scattered, and weak” lithium-ion battery industry in China.

Small refers to the small scale of lithium-ion battery companies in China. The largest four lithium-ion battery manufacturers in China are Lishen, BYD, Scud and BIC. In 2012, God's sales revenue was 3 billion yuan, and lithium-ion battery production exceeded 250 million. The world's largest manufacturer of lithium-ion battery SDI, lithium-ion battery business revenue in 2012 exceeded 14 billion yuan, nearly 1.1 billion battery output, are more than four times the power of God.

Scatter means that China's lithium-ion battery companies are scattered and do not form a group advantage, mainly because they are numerous and regionally distributed. As of the end of 2012, there are more than 350 lithium-ion battery manufacturers in China, which far exceeds the number of companies in Japan, South Korea and other lithium-ion battery countries. From the perspective of regional distribution, it can basically be said that lithium ion batteries are being produced throughout the country. The majority of companies exhibited the trend of “man-for-arms combat”. Many companies still adopt similar “hand-workshop” production methods, and their products lack competitiveness in terms of quantity, quality, automation level, and customer acceptance.

Weak refers to the fact that China's lithium-ion battery companies are relatively weak, and it is still difficult to compete with international industry giants. The gap between core materials and key technologies is still relatively large. The key materials still rely on imports. The battery group technology has yet to be broken. The level of technology research and development of Chinese enterprises is relatively low, and less investment is made in basic research. The patents obtained are mainly based on utility models, and the proportion of invention patents is low. At the same time, the degree of automation of production technology is not high, and there is a big gap between product quality control and international industry giants. China's lithium-ion battery leader in the company's various production processes have also been automated, but there are still many links rely on labor, and SDI, LG, Panasonic, etc. have basically achieved full automation production. In addition, due to the lack of intellectual property rights and certification, most Chinese enterprises are difficult to participate in international competition, which also makes the domestic market competition extremely fierce.

Leveraging on international brands to steadily expand the traditional market

As China's lithium-ion battery exports more restrictive factors, while China is also the world's largest consumer of lithium-ion batteries, to break the current passive situation must fully tap the potential of the local market, to promote industrial development in the market and accelerate the development of lithium-ion batteries in China The transition from a big battery country to a lithium-ion battery powerhouse.

For a long time, consumer electronics and power tools are the main application areas of China's lithium-ion battery industry, accounting for about 80% of China's lithium-ion battery market. After more than 10 years of industrialization development, in the production technology and product performance of lithium-ion battery cells, there is little difference between our products and the international advanced level. To change the current situation, one can overcome the core technology and further improve the performance and consistency of lithium-ion battery products. On the other hand, localization of key materials can also be used to further reduce production costs and use of Japanese consumer electronics companies is at a low ebb. At the stage, leveraging on international brands such as Apple, Google, Amazon, Asus, Lenovo, etc., they actively entered their supply chains and steadily expanded their traditional markets.

For example, markets such as mobile phones and digital cameras require a single lithium-ion battery. South Korea's Samsung SDI and LG Chemical, Panasonic Japan, Sony and other brands have their own lithium-ion battery production companies. And like Apple, Nokia, HTC and other brands without their own battery production companies, China's lithium-ion battery companies are likely to enter the supply chain through market competition, such as the Invertek to provide Apple mobile phone battery module. This is also one of the markets that China's leading enterprises in the lithium-ion battery industry can actively fight for.

For another example, there are two types of consumer battery pack suppliers: One is that lithium-ion battery manufacturers are strong enough to produce battery packs that meet the requirements. However, there are fewer such enterprises in China. This should be a lithium-ion battery in China. One of the key development directions for leading companies. The other is a battery pack manufacturer, whose lithium-ion battery needs to be purchased from the battery manufacturer. Desai, Xinwangda belong to this type of company, but its monomer battery for Apple's battery pack comes from Dongguan New Energy (ATL). For Chinese enterprises, we can improve ourselves through two approaches: First, China's battery module manufacturers cut into the supply chain of international brands such as Apple, Google, and Asus with better cost performance; second, China's lithium-ion battery manufacturers pass Apple Certifications of international brands such as Google, ASUS, etc. have become battery suppliers for module companies such as Xinpu, Shunda, Xinwangda and Desai.

Based on local advantages to identify breakthroughs in emerging markets

To open up emerging markets, we must first improve the performance of our lithium-ion battery packs and lower prices. It is very difficult for battery manufacturers alone to accomplish this task. It requires upstream raw materials (such as cathode materials and electrolytes) and downstream companies (such as battery packs and electric vehicles) to work together to solve performance problems and realize raw materials completely. Purchase.

To solve the battery problem, it is difficult to complete the research and development alone. It also needs market support. How to open emerging markets requires a clear understanding of China's industry situation, based on local advantages, and identify breakthroughs.

The first breakthrough is electric public transport vehicles. For public transportation vehicles, the driving route is relatively fixed. A trip is basically less than 100 kilometers. For intercity buses, it does not exceed 200 kilometers. It is completely within the current mileage of lithium-ion batteries. At the same time, public transport vehicles have dedicated parking spaces and parking spaces, which can be recharged with minor modifications. The promotion of electric public transportation vehicles can also save energy and reduce emissions, and optimize the urban air environment. Therefore, public transport vehicles are the key to the development of electric vehicles in China.

The second breakthrough is electric bikes. Due to its advantages such as quickness and convenience, electric bicycles have been widely welcomed as soon as they come out. China is the world's largest producer of electric bicycles, but currently the batteries used in electric bicycles are basically lead-acid batteries, and the percentage of lithium-ion batteries is extremely low. If the proportion of lithium-ion batteries is increased to 30%, the demand for lithium-ion batteries will reach 4GWh, which is equivalent to the 2012 global lithium-ion battery market combined.

Regulate Industry Management to Ensure the Healthy and Orderly Development of Industry

As the lithium ion battery industry entry threshold is not high, coupled with various regions have launched lithium-ion battery project, resulting in China's lithium-ion battery market is more confusing, many low-level companies are full of them. Therefore, it is imperative to strengthen industry normative management.

The first is to use the "Lithium-ion battery specifications for electric bicycles," the industry standard implementation opportunity, the establishment of lithium-ion battery industry access conditions, from the technical level, the size of the enterprise to establish the industry threshold.

The second is to establish a traceability system for the power battery products. Once the safety accident is determined to be due to the quality of the power battery product, the liability of the lithium ion battery and the battery pack manufacturer will be traced and penalties will be increased. Lithium-ion power batteries and battery pack manufacturers that have repeatedly experienced safety accidents are required to cancel their entry qualifications.

The third is to establish a sound lithium-ion battery standard system, including automotive lithium-ion battery pack standards.

At the same time, to break the current passive situation, it is also necessary for the state to give policy support in terms of technology research and development, industry management, and resource integration. For example, the state should encourage outstanding enterprises to expand the quality of production and operation scale through mergers and acquisitions, strong alliances, and other means to achieve intensive development. The backbone enterprises are encouraged to carry out in-depth cooperation with upstream and downstream enterprises, and to further open the application market while trying to reduce costs, and achieve a win-win situation. In addition, high-quality resources such as finance, finance, and talent should be led to lean toward key enterprises with a certain scale, strong ability for independent innovation, brand awareness, and good reputation, and accelerate the formation of industrial core competitiveness.