[Robots giants dominate the mid-to-high-end market, and domestic manufacturers fully enjoy the industry's outbreak of dividends] The outbreak of industrial robots in China is an inevitable trend, and the market for billions of dollars has grown at a rapid rate. 1) The economical "scissors difference" promotes the spontaneous automation of enterprises: The price of global industrial robots has dropped at an average annual rate of about 6%, domestic labor costs have risen at a rate of about 8%, and domestic engineers' bonuses have further catalyzed the decline in robot prices. Replacement of the "cost-end scissors", multi-functional robot cost recovery period has been less than 2 years, part of the scene has been less than 0.5 years, the economy is expected to drive the demand for multifunctional robots into the inflection point of the outbreak.
2) Continued outbreak of important downstream demand: China's auto output is expected to maintain an overall growth rate of 2% to 4%. With automation solutions breaking through more process requirements, welding, painting, assembly and other processes in other areas are in demand. There is potential to be replaced. 3) High-level support for industrial robots is firm: Lewis inflection points have brought about severe labor shortage expectations, and national policies have successively promulgated policies such as “Made in China 2025â€, “Robust Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)â€, “Industrial Strong Base Project†and other policies. It is planned that by 2020, China will have a target of 150 industrial robots per person, a domestic output of 200,000 units and an independent production capacity of 100,000 units. 4) The rapid growth of tens of billions of markets: The sales volume of industrial robots in China increased from 0.66 million units in 2007 to 87,000 units in 2016, CAGR reached 33.2%, and the average industrial robot market capacity was estimated at RMB 150,000 per industrial robot. It has exceeded 10 billion. According to the requirements of the "Robotic Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)", the domestic market will reach 30 billion yuan in 2020.
The international giants monopolize the mid- to high-end market, and domestic manufacturers fully enjoy the industry's outbreak of dividends. The whole machine side: abb, Fanuc, Yaskawa and KUKA firmly rely on long-term technology accumulation and extensive industry knowledge to firmly occupy the global high-end market of industrial robots. In 2016, the total market share of the domestic market reached 57.4%. The total production capacity of the "four big families" is limited. In 2017, the import volume of China's multi-functional industrial robots has reached 81,300 units, which poses a big challenge to the traditional leading capacity, resulting in the overflow of domestic industrial robots' demand to domestic manufacturers, and huge Under the stimulation of the market, domestic manufacturers continued to break through technology and accumulated effective market reputation. In 2016, the domestic market share has exceeded 25%, and there is a continuous trend of expansion. The capacity expansion projects such as Xinsong Robot, Tuostar, and Estun will be put into production in 2018 and 2019, and they are expected to effectively capture the emerging domestic market. Component side: The technical level of domestic ontology controllers is relatively high, and the market share of Gusmo in the PC-based controller market is close to 50%; however, the gap between high-end reducers and international giants such as HarmonicDrive and Nabtesco is significant, and domestic enterprises invest in their own countries. Under the dual promotion of support, we continuously achieved breakthroughs in the field of reducers. Harbin Harmonics has already ranked No. 2 in the world for harmonic wave gearbox shipments in 2017, and Brilliance won the bid for 30,000 RV reducers in May 2018. , Shuanghuan Transmission, Qinchuan Machine Tool and other companies also achieved breakthroughs in different directions.
In 2018, key indicators have undergone significant marginal changes. Industrial robots and parts and components companies are expected to usher in the investment boom. In 2018, with the central government's policy of high-speed advancement of the industrial Internet, the country's support for automation and intelligent transformation has entered a new phase of substantive implementation. Since July 2017, the number of domestic robots/number of imported robots has continuously increased from 1.45, exceeded 2 for the first time in February 2018, reaching 2.03, and the trend of localization of robots has become clearer. We think that 2018 will be the inflection point for the domesticization of industrial robots. , Domestic ontologies, integration and core parts and components companies are expected to be realized as a new round of outbreaks.
Investment logic: From top to bottom grasp the industrial robot industry chain, recommended the core components in the field of superior standards of Germany's vigorously Germany (reducer business took the lead, 3 million large single effective bottom protection), the body of the initial production of the standard robot (domestic robot leader, back Rely on the strong R&D strength of the Chinese Academy of Sciences' ontology business, rich experience in integration and strong ontology collaboration), and Eston (principal-wide industrial chain layout, full control over upstream and downstream technologies) of the private industry's entire industrial chain, and the top-selling standard in the field of integration. Tatsu (deep ploughing injection molding machine automation, automated integration solutions widely used, ontology business to achieve a breakthrough).
Risk Warning: The international giants have carried out large-scale capacity expansion and price wars, and the core components have encountered a technical blockade.
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