In the past 50 years, transistors have continuously shrunk in size, but according to the latest 2015 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS), this trend will come to an end in 2021. This marks a significant turning point, signaling that Moore’s Law—once a guiding principle of the semiconductor industry—will no longer hold true. The roadmap, released earlier this month, suggests that after 2021, chip manufacturers will face increasing challenges in shrinking transistors further, making it economically unviable.
Instead, companies are expected to shift their focus from horizontal scaling to vertical integration, using layered circuit designs to increase transistor density. This change is seen by some as another major blow to Moore’s Law, and even more alarming, it may be the last ITRS roadmap ever published.
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), which includes major players like IBM and Intel, has acknowledged that declining participation from industry leaders and growing interest in other initiatives have contributed to the current situation. SIA is working with the Semiconductor Research Corporation (SRC) to identify key research areas that should be prioritized for government and industry-funded projects. Other ITRS members will also be involved in developing a new roadmap moving forward.
Dan Hutcheson, an analyst at VLSI Research and a contributor to IEEE Spectrum, described the shift in the roadmap as more than just an administrative change—it's a “major disruption†or even an “earthquake†for the entire industry. He emphasized that while the change might seem minor on the surface, its implications are far-reaching.
Moore’s Law was first introduced in 1965 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, who observed that the number of components on a chip could double every 12 months. Over time, this observation evolved into what became known as "Moore’s Law," stating that the number of transistors per unit area would double approximately every two years. In 1975, Moore revised the timeline, extending it to 24 months.
However, the development of chips is a complex process involving collaboration across multiple industries—equipment manufacturers, software developers, and material suppliers. The vision set by Moore’s Law isn’t something that can be achieved by chance; it requires coordinated efforts and shared goals.
To align the industry around this vision, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) began publishing a technology roadmap in 1992. By 1998, it expanded into the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS), bringing together global organizations to create a unified path for semiconductor innovation.
But the challenges of keeping up with Moore’s Law have led to significant consolidation in the industry. In 2001, around 19 companies were producing the most advanced logic chips, but today only four remain: Intel, TSMC, Samsung, and GlobalFoundries. IBM, once among them, recently sold its chip manufacturing facilities to GlobalFoundries.
Hutcheson noted that these remaining companies have their own roadmaps and maintain direct communication with their suppliers. The competition among them is fierce, and they’re not interested in collaborative meetings that could slow down progress. As he put it, “It’s like the beginning of a football game—fun at first, but brutal during the playoffs.â€
Paolo Gargini, chairman of ITRS, said the industry has changed dramatically. Many semiconductor companies no longer manufacture their own chips and instead rely on foundries to bring their designs to life. Meanwhile, chip designers and buyers such as Apple, Google, and Qualcomm are increasingly shaping the future of chip development. Gargini added, “Once, semiconductor companies decided what features their products would have—but now, that’s no longer the case.â€
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